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Thrift Savings Plan

for Government Employees
& Military Personnel

TSP Talk Sentiment Survey Results

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Sentiment Survey Results

Sentiment Survey System Return:

Sentiment

System

G Fund

F Fund

C Fund

S Fund

I Fund

20% Each

2010 Totals

+14.80%

+2.11%

+7.07%

+0.42%

+5.59%

-2.90%

+2.46%

Thru

L INC

L 2010

L 2020

L 2030

L 2040

09/09/10

+2.32%

+2.24%

+1.87%

+1.79%

+1.65%

Sentiment Survey System Return:

Sentiment

System

G Fund

F Fund

C Fund

S Fund

I Fund

20% Each

2009 Totals:

+6.62%

+2.97%

+5.99%

+26.68%

+34.85%

+30.04%

+20.30%

Thru

L 2040

L 2030

L 2020

L 2010

L INC

12/31/09

+25.19%

+22.48%

+19.14%

+10.03%

+8.57%

System

2006 Results

2007 Results

2008 Results

**New -

+27.96% *

+21.32% *

-6.14% *

Original -

+27.96% *

+21.32%

-38.32%

* Back-tested result

To take the sentiment survey each week via e-mail click here.

How to use this system:
The surveys are posted on the site, and emailed out, each Thursday, and the final ratio is posted here each Friday morning.
The System uses different rules depending on whether the S&P 500 is in a Bull Market or a Bear Market, based on the position of the 50-day EMA in relation to the 200-day EMA on the S&P 500.

The theory being that if the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA, we will consider the S&P 500 to be in a bull market. If the 50 is below the 200, we'll consider it to be a bear market.
In a bull market, when the Ratio is:
2.00 and higher, it tends to be bearish (sell)
1.25 or less, it tends to be bullish (buy)
In a bear market, when the Ratio is:
1.00 and higher, it tends to be bearish (sell)
0.49 or less, it tends to be bullish (buy)

Bull Market Rules:

If the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the S&P 500 is above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), we will use these bull market ratios.

When the Bulls to Bears Ratio is:

2.00 or higher, it is overly bullish, which is bearish for the market and we have a sell signal.

The system goes to 100% G for the following week, until a new buy signal is given.

1.25 or less, it is overly bearish, which is bullish for the market and we have a buy signal. The system goes to 100% S for the following week, until a new sell signal is given.

Bear Market Rules:

If the 50-day EMA of the S&P 500 is below the 200-day EMA, we will use these bear market ratios: When the Bulls to Bears Ratio is:

1.00 or higher, it is overly bullish, which is bearish for the market and we have a sell signal.

The system goes to 100% G for the following week, until a new buy signal is given.

Less than 0.50, it is overly bearish, which is bullish for the market and we have a buy signal. The system goes to 100% C for the following week, until a new sell signal is given. Thanks,
TSP Talk

Effective 8/30/10: Bear Market Rules Apply

Week

S&P 500

Buy/

Bull/

From:

To:

Bulls

Bears

Ratio

gain/loss

Sell

Fund

Bear

09/13/10

09/17/10

44%

43%

1.02

-1

Sell

Bear

09/07/10

09/10/10

38%

53%

0.72

-1

Buy

Bear

08/30/10

09/03/10

29%

60%

0.48

-1

3.75%

1104.51

Buy

Bear

08/23/10

08/27/10

38%

48%

0.79

-1

-0.66%

1064.59

Buy

Bull

08/16/10

08/20/10

29%

63%

0.46

-1

-0.70%

1071.69

Buy

Bull

08/09/10

08/13/10

53%

33%

1.61

-1

-3.78%

1079.25

Sell

Bull

08/02/10

08/06/10

43%

41%

1.05

-1

1.82%

1121.64

Sell

Bear

07/26/10

07/30/10

43%

44%

0.98

-1

-0.10%

1101.60

Sell

Bear

07/19/10

07/23/10

43%

1.00

-1

3.55%

1102.66

Sell

Bear

07/12/10

07/16/10

54%

37%

1.46

-1

-1.21%

1064.88

Sell

Bear

07/06/10

07/09/10

33%

58%

0.57

-1

5.42%

1077.96

Buy

Bull

06/28/10

07/02/10

34%

54%

0.63

-1

-5.03%

1022.58

Buy

Bull

06/21/10

06/25/10

50%

40%

1.25

-1

-3.65%

1076.76

Buy

Bull

06/14/10

06/18/10

49%

40%

1.23

-1

2.37%

1117.51

Buy

Bull

06/07/10

06/11/10

50%

42%

1.19

-1

2.51%

1091.60

Buy

Bull

06/01/10

06/04/10

51%

43%

1.19

-1

-2.25%

1064.88

Buy

Bull

05/24/10

05/28/10

25%

66%

0.38

-1

0.16%

1089.41

Buy

Bull

05/17/10

05/21/10

51%

35%

1.46

-1

-4.33%

1087.69

Buy

Bull

05/10/10

05/14/10

36%

54%

0.67

-1

2.35%

1136.94

Buy

Bull

05/03/10

05/07/10

64%

25%

2.56

-1

-6.39%

1110.88

Sell

Bull

04/26/10

04/30/10

47%

40%

1.18

-1

-2.51%

1186.69

Buy

Bull

04/19/10

04/23/10

61%

29%

2.10

-1

2.11%

1217.28

Sell

Bull

04/12/10

04/16/10

50%

38%

1.32

-1

-0.19%

1192.13

Buy

Bull

04/05/10

04/09/10

56%

34%

1.65

-1

1.38%

1194.37

Buy

Bull

03/29/10

04/02/10

45%

43%

1.05

-1

0.99%

1178.10

Buy

Bull

03/22/10

03/26/10

53%

36%

1.47

-1

0.58%

1166.59

Buy

Bull

03/15/10

03/19/10

56%

31%

1.81

-1

0.86%

1159.90

Buy

Bull

03/08/10

03/12/10

51%

35%

1.46

-1

0.99%

1149.99

Buy

Bull

03/01/10

03/05/10

46%

39%

1.18

-1

3.10%

1138.7

Buy

Bull

02/22/10

02/26/10

50%

38%

1.32

-1

-0.42%

1104.49

Buy

Bull

02/16/10

02/19/10

48%

42%

1.14

-1

3.13%

1109.17

Buy

Bull

02/08/10

02/12/10

36%

54%

0.67

-1

0.87%

1075.51

Buy

Bull

02/01/10

02/05/10

41%

46%

0.89

-1

-0.72%

1066.19

Buy

Bull

01/25/10

01/29/10

43%

47%

0.91

-1

-1.64%

1073.87

Buy

Bull

01/19/10

01/22/10

58%

25%

2.32

-1

-3.90%

1091.76

Sell

Bull

01/11/10

01/15/10

49%

38%

1.29

-1

-0.78%

1136.03

Sell

Bull

01/04/10

01/08/10

49%

39%

1.26

-1

2.68%

1144.98

Sell

Bull

12/28/09

12/31/09

66%

20%

3.30

-1

-1.01%

1115.10

Sell

Bull

12/21/09

12/24/09

63%

26%

2.42

-1

2.18%

1126.48

Sell

Bull

12/14/09

12/18/09

62%

28%

2.21

-1

-0.36%

1102.47

Sell

Bull

12/07/09

12/11/09

58%

28%

2.07

-1

0.04%

1106.41

Sell

Bull

11/30/09

12/04/09

50%

36%

1.39

-1

1.33%

1105.98

Buy

Bull

11/23/09

11/27/09

44%

45%

0.98

-1

0.01%

1091.49

Buy

Bull

11/16/09

11/20/09

49%

39%

1.26

-1

-0.19%

1091.38

Buy

Bull

11/09/09

11/13/09

54%

34%

1.59

-1

2.26%

1093.48

Buy

Bull

11/02/09

11/06/09

37%

49%

0.76

-1

3.20%

1069.3

Buy

Bull

10/26/09

10/30/09

46%

41%

1.12

-1

-4.02%

1036.19

Buy

Bull

10/19/09

10/23/09

54%

32%

1.69

-1

-0.74%

1079.60

Buy

Bull

10/12/09

10/16/09

55%

34%

1.62

-1

1.51%

1087.68

Buy

Bull

10/05/09

10/09/09

37%

50%

0.74

-1

4.51%

1071.49

Buy

Bull

09/28/09

10/02/09

39%

49%

0.80

-1

-1.84%

1025.21

Buy

Bull

09/21/09

09/25/09

55%

35%

1.57

-1

-2.24%

1044.38

Buy

Bull

09/14/09

09/18/09

51%

34%

1.50

-1

2.45%

1068.30

Buy

Bull

09/08/09

09/11/09

40%

45%

0.89

-1

2.59%

1042.73

Buy

Bull

08/31/09

09/04/09

44%

41%

1.07

-1

-1.22%

1016.4

Buy

Bull

08/24/09

08/28/09

50%

37%

1.35

-1

0.27%

1028.93

Sell

Bull

08/17/09

08/21/09

51%

35%

1.46

-1

2.20%

1026.13

Sell

Bull

08/10/09

08/14/09

47%

42%

1.12

-1

-0.63%

1004.09

Sell

Bear

08/03/09

08/07/09

48%

40%

1.20

-1

2.33%

1010.48

Sell

Bear

07/27/09

07/31/09

51%

37%

1.38

-1

0.84%

987.48

Sell

Bear

07/20/09

07/24/09

46%

44%

1.05

-1

4.13%

979.26

Sell

Bear

07/13/09

07/17/09

33%

53%

0.62

-1

6.97%

940.38

Sell

Bear

07/06/09

07/10/09

40%

43%

0.93

-1

-1.93%

879.13

Sell

Bear

06/29/09

07/02/09

36%

54%

0.67

-1

-2.45%

896.42

Sell

Bear

06/22/09

06/26/09

38%

48%

0.79

-1

-0.25%

918.9

Sell

Bear

06/15/09

06/19/09

49%

38%

1.29

-1

-2.64%

921.23

Sell

Bear

06/08/09

06/12/09

52%

34%

1.53

-1

0.65%

946.21

Sell

Bear

06/01/09

06/05/09

44%

41%

1.07

-1

2.28%

940.09

Sell

Bear

05/26/09

05/29/09

37%

53%

0.70

-1

3.62%

919.14

Sell

Bear

05/18/09

05/22/09

34%

56%

0.61

-1

0.47%

887.00

Sell

Bear

05/11/09

05/15/09

47%

42%

1.12

-1

-4.99%

882.88

Sell

Bear

05/04/09

05/08/09

43%

45%

0.96

-1

5.89%

929.23

Sell

Bear

04/27/09

05/01/09

34%

51%

0.67

-1

1.30%

877.52

Sell

Bear

04/20/09

04/24/09

38%

45%

0.84

-1

-0.39%

866.23

Sell

Bear

04/13/09

04/17/09

35%

47%

0.74

-1

1.52%

869.60

Sell

Bear

04/06/09

04/10/09

49%

35%

1.40

-1

1.67%

856.56

Sell

Bear

03/30/09

04/03/09

47%

37%

1.27

-1

3.26%

842.50

Sell

Bear

03/23/09

03/27/09

34%

52%

0.65

-1

6.17%

815.94

Buy

Bear

03/16/09

03/20/09

36%

48%

0.75

-1

2.37%

768.54

Buy

Bear

03/09/09

03/13/09

26%

64%

0.41

-1

9.86%

750.74

Buy

Bear

03/02/09

03/06/09

34%

55%

0.62

-1

-7.03%

683.38

Buy

Bear

02/23/09

02/27/09

27%

60%

0.45

-1

-4.54%

735.09

Buy

Bear

02/17/09

02/20/09

34%

51%

0.67

-1

-6.87%

770.05

Buy

Bear

02/09/09

02/13/09

34%

51%

0.67

-1

-4.81%

826.84

Buy

Bear

02/02/09

02/06/09

26%

58%

0.45

-1

5.17%

868.60

Buy

Bear

01/26/09

01/30/09

37%

50%

0.74

-1

-0.73%

825.88

Sell

Bear

01/20/09

01/23/09

35%

53%

0.66

-1

-2.14%

831.95

Sell

Bear

01/12/09

01/16/09

32%

52%

0.62

-1

-4.52%

850.12

Sell

Bear

01/05/09

01/09/09

45%

42%

1.07

-1

-4.45%

890.35

Sell

Bear

01/02/09

34%

50%

0.68

-1

3.16%

931.80

Sell

Bear

S&P 500 (C fund)

1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y

Dow Completion (S fund)

1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y

EFA (I fund)

1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y

Bonds (F fund)

1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y

20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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